Friday, February 12, 2016

Horse Property, Historic Charmers, and Chic Urban Flats [Fresh Listings, Get' Em Hot]


58 Shiny new listings hit the Boulder real estate market this week. What’s worth seeing? Let’s find out.

5 are already under contract. Snooze you lose.

9 are sneaky refreshed inventory. Sorry listing agents, old is old.

32 are in bad locations, overpriced, have poor investment potential, or are uninteresting. In other words, I wouldn’t buy them. That leaves just 12 worth seeing.


To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of negotiation tactics, valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896.



Boulder 

4048 57th Street | $1,795,000 | More Details
Just north of Boulder Airport and South of Jay Road, nestled among other high end homes. Parcel to the north appears to be protected from further development by a conservation easement. Unincorporated Boulder County (tax savings, less onerous building restrictions) and minutes from the City of Boulder. Some elements of the property are showing their age (turquoise trim?) but worth a look. 

 




1775 Deer Valley Road | $1,695,000 | More Details
We’ve already taken several buyers to see this coveted patch of dirt. The perch itself has a spectacular view, no doubt but expect a full build-out (including the land purchase) to end up in the low $3MM’s. Due Diligence: The spectacular build location can only be preserved if the peak of the existing structure is preserved during construction. Verify this during due diligence period with your own architect (call us for recommendations) and the Boulder Building Department.
 



2 Bedroom Luxury Condo | $XXX,XXX
One of my clients wants to buy this unit. It’s a luxury 2 bedroom condo in a terrific location. Expected development and a neighborhood development plan make this a solid bet for the long-term. Some of my favorite restaurants in Boulder are next door!   Offer underway!






2227 16th Street | $1,150,000 | More Details
This one is almost turn-key. With a few minor cosmetic updates, you’ve got a historic, charming house in the very heart of downtown Boulder. Fly in for a visit, shop on the mall, dine in the foodie restaurants, end the night with billiards against the locals at the Slum Downer and stumble home without an Uber. Due Diligence: What you see is what you get. Don’t expect to be able to make any additions to the property due to the tiny lot and historic interests.







1946 Beacon Ct | $878,500 | More Details
These Beacon Court houses are always popular with buyers. The location is desirable (on the West End) and with this one, you get a two car garage. It’s already been on the market for 5 days, so don’t delay in seeing it if you’re interested. These houses are rarely available. Due Diligence: Check for traffic noise tolerance from Canyon.






1 Bedroom Condo Downtown | $XXX,XXX
Here's a surprisingly inexpensive entry to downtown Boulder real estate. Nearby future development (BCH) will almost certainly lock in long term investment potential. Current cap rate is 4.6% (minus the management fee) and the existing tenant wants to stay. The only hair on the dog is the limited financing due to the mixed use at the complex. Portfolio loans limit the buyer pool. One of my clients might want to buy it, so we’re redacting the information (we don’t need any more competition). 


3481 Cripple Creek Sqaure #17E | $444,900 | More Details
Shanahan Ridge has always been one of my favorite locations. Open space trails are directly adjacent to the complex. The best rated schools in Boulder are nearby. Many of the units still have romantic wood burning stoves (like this one). You’ll need it to offset the horribly expensive electric baseboard and poor insulation. Updated units with upper decks and southern exposures go for a premium.    How much of a premium?   Call me.  303.746.6896





3800 Colorado Avenue A | $600,000 | More Details
The investment thesis for this property is that you’re acquiring a relatively low maintenance town home with four bedrooms directly across from the research side of CU. That should result in a pretty good tenant mix (serious students, professors, researchers). It’s also very easy to hop on a bike path to head to downtown Boulder or get on Foothills Parkway to drive to work in Denver or to jobs along the Tech Corridor. See it this weekend, offers are due Tuesday morning. 






1850 Folsom Street 407 | $439,000 | More Details
This one is a no-brainer for investment purposes. When constructed in the 1970’s, this building was an impetus for the 4 story height limit. Updates to common areas are in the works. Lock and leave, enjoy the west facing view. In the heart of the action for Boulder. The carport is a bit of a bummer. This particular unit needs a remodel.






2800 Sundown Lane 206 | $359,000 | More Details
When they’re not catching on fire, units at Gold Run have made very good investments for our clients. Nestled just north of the campus, on the bike path, near Scott Carpenter Park and the 29th Street Mall shopping area. Due Diligence: Student density is high, special assessments are underway or imminent.






5920 Gunbarrel Avenue B | $326,500 | More Details
A low cost and friendly community just north of the the City. Our clients who live here love it. This is one of two currently available in Powderhorn. If you’re shopping, I know of another that will soon be available. Call me.


 


Lafayette 

8600 Baseline Road  | $2,900,000 | More Details
This large estate, just east of the quiet Nyland Co-Housing Community is buffered by open space. It’s rare to see 33+ acres become available within minutes of the City. Close to Boulder and even closer to charming downtown Lafayette and Louisville.  The interior of the home is dated and could use a refresh, but the layout and elevation are classic. The barns and pastures make this particularly appealing to horse lovers.  


 




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Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 


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Your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend rigorous due diligence and professional advice before buying or selling real estate.    Powered by Realty Unique, LLC.


image: inspiration de 

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Getting Bubbly Yet?

by Osman Parvez
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A couple of months ago, I posted an analysis of pricing and negotiations at Wimbledon. Read Osman, How Much Should I Offer?

If you're not familiar with Wimbledon, it's a small complex of older townhomes located a few blocks from CU on the east side of Campus. The units are a little rundown at Wimbledon, but they have reasonable build quality and HOA fees. Most are occupied by students and owned by investors (often parents). In the past, these have made good investment properties. 

I like to use the model as a teaching tool with new investors in particular because it helps drive discussions about underlying assumptions, distinguish between cash flow and appreciation returns, and stimulates a broader conversation about risk. One of the other advantages of an investment model is that it can help you think through negotiation strategy, including a range of prices you might be willing to pay.

In the post linked above, the modeled purchase price ranged (between Scenario A and B) from $280,000 to $290,000. The analysis showed a very strong upward swing in prices beginning in 2014 (see chart below).


  
In late November, on behalf of one of our clients, I negotiated an end of year deal on an already rented 2 bedroom unit for $292,500. It was a little higher than the most recent sales but not egregiously - 1.8% over the most recent comp. I'm glad my client pulled the trigger rather than waiting to see what the market would bring in 2016. 

Last month TWO units closed at $315,000, setting a new high water mark and crossing the psychological threshold of $300K for the first time. Unit J-207 and Unit O-202 closed at 12.5% over the asking price. 

Did the investor pay too much? If rents hold steady, probably not. Take a look at the table below. 



The projected returns shown above area based on 30% down, a 10 year holding period, and conservative expectations for increases in rent, HOA fees and maintenance costs. Although Year 1 Cash Flow takes a dive, the long run remains promising at the higher price.  

Given the lack of other places to invest capital, and the historic low downturn risk of student rentals in Boulder, the fact that the most recent deals have been all cash is not surprising.   


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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       
Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

--
The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Friday, February 05, 2016

This Week: Investment Condos, Trophy Estates and Family Houses in Newlands [Fresh Listings, Get 'Em Hot]


54 new listings hit the Boulder real estate market last week. Many were old, expired or withdrawn listings from late year (i.e., refreshed listings). A bunch were in bad locations or egregiously overpriced. 

Don't worry. We sifted the wheat from the chaff. Here's 15 worth seeing this weekend.   

To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896.



Boulder 


3135 4th Street | $1,735,000 | More Details
Family friendly layout in highly desirable Newlands. Well maintained and appears to be turn-key. Only one block from open space. Excellent hiking only minutes from the front door.

Buyers typically pay a premium for Newlands because of the proximity to downtown and the classic neighborhood feel.

Due Diligence: Buyers shopping at price points above $1.5MM have more leverage to negotiate concessions and more selection to choose from. If your agent pressures you, get a better Realtor.



 

2895 Heidelberg Drive | $865,000 | More Details
Excellent location, just up the street from Viele Lake and the Rec Center. Great neighbors (we sold a nearby house recently to an awesome family). Best ranked schools in Boulder. Four levels with all three bedrooms on the upper. Updates in kitchen and throughout. Bike to the Southern Sun and Sweet Cow. I'd live here.



 




6507 Baseline Road | $765,000 | More Details
Front row views on a huge lot (0.91 acres). A potentially great perch to construct your trophy home, assuming a deeper setback from Baseline. 

Due Diligence: Traffic noise, construction costs.



 





XXXXX  | $7XX,000
Excellent location in Table Mesa. Needs updates. One of our clients is likely to write an offer on this one so we're redacting information. 



8262 Kincross Drive | $669,000 | More Details
Special and spacious lot backing to protected open space with South facing views. Four bedrooms all on upper. Updated bathroom and kitchen. Desirable Heatherwood neighborhood. Our good friend lived in this house for many years. Lovingly cared for.








2886 Kenyon Circle | $625,000 | More Details
Bi-level in a great spot in Table Mesa. Needs lots of updates but location is solid, house is south facing, and the price is about right. Access to nearby high-quality schools, Viele lake, parks and the South Boulder Rec Center.








 
4602 Tally Ho Trail | $615,000 | More Details
Near Twin Lakes Open Space (currently being debated in Daily Camera). Solid layout. Finished basement, and a remolded bath. Needs mild updating depending on buyer preference. Avery Brewing nearby.









4432 Greenbriar Boulevard | $525,000 | More Details
We saw this with a client earlier this week. Views overlook Shanahan Ranch that will likely be developed with a trophy home sometime in the future. Reasonable alternative to an entry level house in Boulder (less maintenance). Not so great split layout, won't work so well for younger children or buyers seeking to avoid stairs. 







XXXXX Drive | $5XX,X00
Nice ranch with a full basement. Decent schools. Location has under performed Martin Acres and Table Mesa. Kitchen was bizarrely renovated. Street is busy. Doesn't matter, will likely have a bidding war.



3240 Iris Avenue G403 | $257,000 | More Details
Top floor units with good views at Remington Post have made good investments for our clients in the past. Look past the asbestos ceilings to the underground garage, elevator, and proximity to retail. Amenities are a little run down but still functional and there's a heated indoor pool big enough for laps. Easy bike ride to Google offices. 








500 Manhattan Drive C6 | $319,900 | More Details
CU kiddie condo, not in the basement. Price point seems a little steep but there has been massive demand for condos in Boulder (far outstripping supply, and far greater demand than for entry level houses recently).











 
Lafayette 

10627 Empire Road | $978,000 | More Details
A big parcel of land, surrounded by open space. Dated interior. Great spot for a trophy home with an epic backyard. Live it in now, develop it later. 



 



 
1830 Samos Circle 114 | $267,500 | More Details
Nice spot for young professional or older buyers. Retail nearby is OK. Access to Boulder and Denver is great. Price point is affordable. Views to open space are the better spot in this complex. Adjacent lot is private ownership but undeveloped, near the Coal Creek Trail.   

Due Diligence: explore development risk of the adjacent parcel.





 

Longmont 

800 Nelson Park Drive | $365,000 | More Details
Dirt cheap entry into ownership in Boulder County with a fast drive to downtown Boulder (about 20 minutes without traffic.) Nearby open space is decent. Whole Foods and Twin Peaks Shopping is less than 2 miles away (when it opens in December, if it opens)  

Due Diligence: Lots of new units to be constructed nearby. 

Full disclosure: I own an investment property nearby.



 
Investment Opportunities

1647 Arapahoe Avenue | $1,550,000 | More Details
Stands out with a long term lease to the pizza shop and endless customer-students from Boulder High. Multiple residential units diversify the income stream. Redevelop in 10 years to luxury condos suited to adapt to the future Civic Center/City Park. Reasonable cap rate.






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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       

Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 


You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

Your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

--
The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend rigorous due diligence and professional advice before buying or selling real estate.    Powered by Realty Unique, LLC.

image:  
Tuğba Yüksel

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Rates Drop, Mortgage Apps Soar

Via Calculated Risk:



Mortgage applications increased 8.8% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 22, 2016. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Martin Luther King holiday. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since October 2015, 4.02 percent, from 4.06 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 22% higher than a year ago.


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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       
Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

--
The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Table Mesa Prices Jump 11.5% [Analysis This]

by Osman Parvez
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A few weeks ago, I updated my annual analysis for Martin Acres. Now let's take a look at an adjacent neighborhood directly to the west: Table Mesa.  

Remember: negotiation expertise is a competitive advantage for both buyers and sellers. Smart real estate decisions are based on a deep understanding of local market conditions. There is no short-cut to deep analysis nor a replacement for skill. Sorry, there's no app for that.     

Table Mesa is a well located neighborhood with a selection of diverse properties. It has the best rated schools in Boulder. The retail mix at the Table Mesa shopping center continues to improve with the recent addition of Sweet Cow, Lucky's and Snarfs are expected to open sometime in the near future. Table Mesa features several beautiful parks and a popular recreation center, not to mention phenomenal hiking/outdoor recreation and many trail heads. Assuming you're not into beer pong slip'n slide, buyers with families are happy to know that Table Mesa doesn't have a high percentage of CU students.   

This analysis looks at single family houses only. Table Mesa also has many attached dwellings on Shanahan Ridge and Devil's Thumb with some rental-only properties lower down. 



House types are evenly distributed in Table Mesa with 1 story ranches taking a slightly higher share.



As a proportion of sales, $1MM+ listings have increased markedly over the past several years — more than tripling since 2013. Note: higher-end listings were also the most volatile in past real estate cycles. Property selection can counter downside risk and help with capital preservation. Talk to your professional real estate adviser.


Sales volume fell last year. 103 houses traded in 2013. Only 90 in 2015. 

Note: this includes only MLS transactions. In any given year, a small percentage of non-arms length transactions occur off the MLS. To prepare this analysis, I reviewed all recorded sales and found a small number of off-MLS transactions. Some of these were well below market price. I suspect these were mostly family transactions. In a few cases, prices were strangely well above market as well — likely private sales to buyers who erroneously thought they were getting a deal. 

Funny story: when I worked in private equity, "dumb money" was what we called investors who overpaid for deals (in snarky contrast to "smart money"). Off-MLS sales likewise can be treacherous waters. Buyers naively think they are getting a deal, but in most cases, they probably aren't. Sellers are inclined to take private deals only if they are confident they are getting a price higher than they would by listing it publicly.



The median sale price in Table Mesa rose from $600,000 in 2013 to $730,000 in 2015, an increase of 21.6% in two years. 2015 showed a stronger appreciation rate (11.5%) than the previous year (9.1%).


Last year, houses in Table Mesa traded at an average premium of 0.6%. Contrast that with an average negotiated discount of 1.9% in 2013.   

If you're interested in comparing Boulder neighborhoods, note that buyers paid an average of 4.3% over asking for MAI index homes and 3.5% over asking for all properties sold in Martin Ares. The Martin Acres analysis is HERE.




The chart above shows the average negotiated discount (same as the preceding chart, now shown by the red dot) but adds the min/max negotiated discount or premium paid. It illustrates one important point: pricing and Realtor skill are all over the map.   

Even in this strong seller's market, some homes sold at massive discounts because they were mispriced and badly marketed. Other homes sold at substantial premiums, but that doesn't necessarily mean the seller achieved their maximum possible price. Talk to your real estate adviser about marketing strategies that maximize sale price.   

During the last few years, we've seen so many mangled negotiations and poorly handled bidding wars it's become almost the norm. In one notable case, we directly participated in a deal where the listing agent left a large sum on the table. They told our buyer there were no other bidders and didn't call to negotiate when another offer arose. The seller would have netted at least another $100K if the negotiation had been better handled.  The skill of your Realtor is important. 



This last chart shows the percentage of homes that sold over asking in Table Mesa. The trend is unmistakable; nearly half the homes in Table Mesa sold for more than the asking last year, a sharp increase from 2013 and 2014.   

It reminds me of the old George Carlin joke: "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."  

Don't get me wrong. Some homes are clearly worth paying a premium. Others are not. One of the jobs of your real estate adviser is to help you understand which homes are worth jumping into a bidding war. Choose your agent carefully.

Note: My last deal in Table Mesa closed in Early January for nearly 3.5% below the asking price and almost 9% below the original list price. We represented the buyer. 


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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       
Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 
You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

--
The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

Friday, January 22, 2016

A View to Drool Over and Luxury Lock and Leave Downtown [Fresh Listings, Get 'Em Hot]

Yay for new inventory!
Nearly 40 listings hit the Boulder area market this week. We culled the bad locations, overpriced, and otherwise undesirables. Here’s what is worth seeing.

Note: You might notice that nothing over $1MM made the list this week. At higher price points, demand is lower, supply is higher, and we’re far more selective.


To schedule a private showing, which includes a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896
.




Boulder 


385 Hopi Place | $955,000 | More Details
Solid location in Frasier Meadows. Looks like a good layout for entertaining. Interior finishes could use an update. Lot size is generous and should be adequate for future expansion under Compatible Development. Two main floor bedrooms mean this will work for aging Boomers or most young families. Quick access to retail including Erhardt’s Euro Bakery (our latest obsession).  







1155 Canyon Boulevard 201 | $495,000 | More Details
LEED certified, at the center of downtown Boulder, lock and leave. Recently constructed downtown condos are increasingly rare.  If you're looking for a crash pad under $500K in the heart of everything, here's your chance. Typical buyers will be fly-in executives, occasional residents, and Boomers who want to be near their grand kids.  Due diligence:  Don't plan on using Air BnB to offset ownership costs. Thank City Council for new rules that restrict short term rentals. 

 







6084 Chelsea Manor Court | $789,500 | More Details
This neighborhood, just east of Spine is a hidden gem.   The last buyers we sold in this location loved the very fast access to the heart of Boulder and the family friendly neighbors. Due diligence: This one has a view and adjacent open space (sometimes worth 10% to 20% premium to non-view comps) but before you get excited, confirm the location and potential impact of development of the two privately held parcels on Jay Rd.


 



3120 Corona Trl L-302 | $325,000 | More Details
Remington Post has been a great investment for my clients in the past. They usually rent easily due to the location, garage parking, and elevator access. This 3 Bed, 2 Bath is on the more desirable side of the complex (with views). Due diligence: Popcorn ceilings at Remington Post contain asbestos. Check for professional mitigation or budget accordingly.   Windows were also supposed to be replaced by owners throughout the complex a few years ago.  The HOA may require this in the near future. 








Louisville

112 Aline Street | $550,000 | More Details

Some nice updates in this late 60’s ranch plus a full basement. The primary draw is the location. It’s close to open space and a short walk to downtown Louisville.


 

Lafayette 

1000 Milo Circle A | $239,900 | More Details
This 3 Bed, 3 Bath town home is an inexpensive entry into ownership. Commute distance to Boulder and jobs along the tech corridor is manageable. Construction is past the era of lead based paint and asbestos. The location isn’t great, it backs to 287 but that should reduce the number of potential bidders in a probable bidding war. Check your noise tolerance to traffic. If you’ve lost out in past bidding wars, go see this one.   






Longmont 

1713 Sicily Drive | $490,000 | More Details
I like the Renaissance neighborhood so much I bought an investment property here last month. Access to downtown Boulder is only about 5 minutes longer by car than much of South Boulder. Open space and high quality retail is nearby. Whole Foods supposedly opens at the end of the year. One of the 4 Beds in this house is on the main level, highly desirable for aging boomers and families that need a home office. Recent construction typically means it should be energy efficient and well designed. The one big downside is if you have to commute to Denver or points South of Boulder.


Investment Opportunities

6672 Gunpark Drive | $895,000 | More Details 
Interesting office building zoned BR-2. Great location to attract a variety of commercial tenants. Priced for the small investor.



Vacant Lots and Land

1151 Timber Lane | $495,000 | More Details
Nearly 2.5 acres of land with spectacular views overlooking Boulder and a reasonable drive to downtown. Build your trophy dream house. This was under contract earlier but the deal fell through. Here's your chance...









To schedule private showings, including a discussion of valuation and price trends, call Osman at 303.746.6896.
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Want to get blog updates via email?  Click HERE.       

Ready to buy or sell?  Schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. 


You can also like our Facebook page or follow us on Twitter.

Your referrals are deeply appreciated.  

--
The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend rigorous due diligence and professional advice before buying or selling real estate.    Powered by Realty Unique, LLC.   image: Oakley Originals (via CC 2.0)